The "new summer"of Sardinia, tourism in September and October

Other than overtourism, tourist overcrowding. Sardinia is no longer loved only in July and August. It is not Santorini, it is not Menorca: small spaces, many presences, impossibility of living together. Because the lengthening of the season in Sardinia is no longer a dream. It’s reality. September and October are already two months fully tourist. They represent the "new" summer of Sardinia. And grow more than August. So say the historical data of Istat on arrivals and presences, reworked by the communication of the UniOlbia consortium.

September and October boom after Covid

UniOlbia has analyzed the data on tourism in Sardinia before and after the Covid, and wanted to compare long periods, not only year by year, to have a more complete picture and less contingent. It turned out that after the pandemic, there was a turning point: Sardinia is loved in low season much more than before.

According to UniOlbia’s analysis of Istat* data, compared to the average for the period 2015-2019, that of 2022-2023 marks + 23% for arrivals and +10.7% for attendance.

In absolute terms, the average number of arrivals from September-October post Covid is 402,000 compared to 327,000 for 2015-2019 and the average attendance is 1 million 588 thousand against 1 million 433 thousand.

Growth more than in August

September-October's growth in the average period 2022-2023 is the highest of all tourist months. The May-June figure was 10.2% in arrivals (432,000) and 2% in presences (1,601,000). July-August's figure was 11.3% in arrivals (675,000) and even negative 0.7 in attendance.

After the pandemic, July and August (this last month in particular) marked a decrease: a sign that this period is now saturated. It would seem to be over.

Summer temperatures

September and October are no longer months of shoulder, then. Thanks to the good weather, more flights, longer hotel openings, these two months are full season. Time is a relevant factor.

According to the data Sardegna Arpa consulted by UniOlbia, the minimum temperatures of October 2023 were equal to 16 degrees in coastal areas, 1.5 degrees above the average for the period, and the maximum at 28 degrees, 4 degrees higher than the historical. The same temperatures were recorded in October 2022.

It’s hot, as in summer. A bad signal on the climate front. A phenomenon on which, however, - in the name of sustainability - the tourism industry can and must reflect seriously (and, in some cases, is already doing so).

Most flights

In addition to the good weather, the lengthening of the tourist season is facilitated, or facilitates, the increase of routes areas for Sardinia and the extended opening of hotels. It is difficult to establish whether flights have an effect on hotels, or vice versa: this is a subject that has been debated without a clear conclusion for the time being.

UniOlbia has consulted the 2024 summer timetable of the airports of Olbia and Alghero and there are many flights that end on 26 October, the last day of the summer season.

The routes until 26 October

Until that date, Northern Sardinia will remain connected Salzburg and Vienna (Austria), Brussels (Belgium), Copenhagen (Denmark), Brest, Deauville, Lille, Lyon, Nantes, Paris, Strasbourg (France), Hamburg, Berlin, Cologne, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Munich, Stuttgart (Germany), Dublin (Ireland), Amsterdam (Netherlands), Krakow (Poland), Birmingham, Bristol, London, Manchester (United Kingdom), Bucharest (Romania), Bratislava (Slovakia), Barcelona, Madrid (Spain), Basel, Geneva, Zurich (Switzerland).

Hotels open longer

Hotels have also moved their closing dates further and further. For the Costa Smeralda, for example, the season is long. The Hotel Cala di Volpe, one of the most exclusive and expensive in the world, opens in early April and closes at the end of October, coinciding with the summer season of flights.

According to the analysis conducted on Booking***, Cala di Volpe has dates already not available for September and October 2024.

A trend that will consolidate in 2024

The long-invoked structural change - the lengthening of the season - has taken place without announcements or proclamations, and only analysis of numbers now makes it clear in a plastic way. And the outlook for 2024 is encouraging.

According to the analysis conducted by UniOlbia on Google Trends**, last month in Italy the search on Google of "meteo ottobre sardegna" has suffered a surge, as well as in the United States the search "sardinia weather october".

An island of 4 million inhabitants in September

So a new summer. A new Sardinia.

The island, which has 1 million 600 thousand inhabitants, in September has 2 million 400 thousand more inhabitants and in October 820 thousand more. September is therefore a month in which the inhabitants of Sardinia are 4 million, in fact, and in October 2 million and a half.

Numbers by default. Because only half of the accommodation facilities - hotels, accommodations, B&B... - has communicated to the Istat the data of arrivals and arrivals. Potentially, there is a 50% more arrivals and arrivals.

Gallura always first

In anticipation of monthly data also at the provincial municipal level, Gallura**** is confirmed in 2023 as the first destination in Sardinia both for arrivals (31.6% of the total) and for presences (35.8%); followed by that of Cagliari with more than 20% of presences on the total.

Both for flights and hotels, the more open, the Gallura is characterized as a destination where the season is longer than in the past and other provinces of Sardinia.

The Italians discover the "shoulder season"

And the lengthening of the season in Sardinia, another novelty, is not to be attributed only to foreign tourists, once protagonists of the months of shoulder. The largest contribution to the percentage increase comes from Italians, including those living in Sardinia, tourists in and of their own region.

In the period September-October of 2022-2023, there was a growth in arrivals of Italians of 26% over the same period of 2015-2019 and 20% of presences. In absolute terms, 165 thousand arrivals against 131 thousand of the pre-covid period and 644 thousand presences against 536 thousand.

So also the Italians - due to demographic changes - love more and more the Sardinia of September and October.

Foreigners are still the most numerous

However, foreigners always remain the majority component of the shoulder months. The average number of arrivals of foreigners in September-October 2022-2023 was 237 thousand against 199 thousand of the pre-Covid period (+19%) and the average attendance of 944 thousand against 897 thousand (+12.7%).

September is always better, October never so loved

Between the two months, it is September that has more arrivals and presences. But it is October - a completely autumn month, even with the presence of snow in the mountains of Sardinia - that has grown the most.

The arrivals

In September, arrivals in the period 2022-2023 increased by 18.7%, 564,000 on average against 475,000 average of the period 2015-2019. In October, arrivals increased by 33.5% (239,000 on average compared to 179.00 before the Covid).

In September, the increase in arrivals of Italians was 23.7% (238,000 against 192,400); that of foreigners 16% (326,000 against 283,000).

In October, the increase in arrivals of Italians was 30% (91,000 against 70,000); that of foreigners 35.7% (148,000 against 109,000).

The attendance

For attendance, the average of September 2022-2023 was 2,360,000 against 2,222,000 (+6.2%). The average for October was 817,000 compared to 645,000 (+26.6%).

The attendance of Italians increased in September from 911,000 to 1,056,000 (+16%) and in October from 161,000 to 230,000 (+42.8%).

The number of foreigners in September rose from 1,311,000 to 1,302,000 (-0.6%) and in October from 484,000 to 586,000 (+21%).

UniOlbia’s commitment

UniOlbia will continue to monitor these trends, offering analysis and insights to better understand the dynamics of tourism in Sardinia and support sustainable development strategies for the future. These analyses are part of UniOlbia’s mission to "Work to ensure the best university courses in Olbia and offer companies and the territory the professionals of the future".

Among the degree courses offered, there are Economics and Tourism Management of the University of Sassari (UNISS) and Naval Engineering of the University of Cagliari (UniCa), which form professional figures able to face the challenges of the tourism and maritime sector.

NOTES

* The data analysed by UniOlbia are those of Istat (https://esploradati.istat.it/databrowser/#/it/dw/categories/IT1,Z0700SER,1.0/SER_TOURISM/SER_TOURISM_RELATED_FILES), Sardegna Statistiche (https://www.sardegnastatistiche.it/argomenti/turismo/) and Ossevatorio del Turismo di Sardegna Turismo). The percentage of data coverage - that is, the percentage of accommodation facilities which have reported data on those opened - is on average just over 50% for the years examined. It should be pointed out that the data of Istat and Sardegna Statistiche coincide, while those of Osservatorio del Turismo have higher values

** Search performed on August 27, 2024 at 6 pm on Google Trends with "USA", "last 30 days", "trips" and with "Italy" "last 30 days", "trips"

*** Research carried out on 28 August 2024 at 10.45

**** By Gallura we mean the territory of the reborn Province of Gallura which includes the following 26 municipalities: Aggius, Aglientu, Alà dei Sardi, Arzachena, Badesi, Berchidda, Bortigiadas, Buddusò, Budoni, Calangianus, Golfo Aranci, La Maddalena, Loiri Porto San Paolo, Luogosanto, Luras, Monti, Olbia, Oschiri, Padru, Palau, San Teodoro, Santa Teresa Gallura, Sant'Antonio di Gallura, Telti, Tempio Pausania, Trinità d'Agultu and Vignola.